Extreme Weather

Semester Two

Module Leader: Edward Graham

Extreme weather events are increasing in both intensity and frequency across the globe, many of an unprecedented severity.  For example, in 2021, a heatwave of an unprecedented magnitude (with air temperatures up to 49.6°C) affected the Pacific Northwest of North America – far more extreme than climate scientists had expected, even in their worst-case scenarios. In 2022, 40°C was reached for the first time in the UK – this will become a regular occurrence by the latter decades of the current century. Recent high resolution met modelling also indicates that extreme rainfall events, such as those causing flash floods, will become at least four times more likely than they were in the past.

Advances in recent scientific understanding over the past decade, not least from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its three working groups, confirm that these such extreme events are attributable to global warming and would be statistically “impossible” without anthropogenic climate change.

At the same time the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) has played a crucial role in fostering collaboration among scientists and facilitated the integration of different disciplines, leading to significant scientific advancements in the field of Earth system science. Although the IGBP officially ended in 2015, its legacy continues to influence research and policy discussions linked to climate change and extreme weather events.

All current credible climate emission scenarios indicate that extreme weather events will increase in severity over the coming decades and will continue doing so until the global community properly addresses the climate crisis. Massive adaptation and mitigation issues will undoubtedly plague local, national and international levels of government, and the situation will get a lot worse until it gets better, if at all.

An increased public awareness of weather and climate hazards (e.g. weather warning systems) together with a greater understanding of the impacts of new, unprecedented, individual extreme events to human-induced climate change, is therefore necessary for graduates of the future. The rapidly increasing costs arising due to disasters, will promote an enhanced requirement for extreme climate and hazard experts and responders in both public and private arenas.

Contact: nwh1eg@uhi.ac.uk

Eddy (Eddie) Graham — University of the Highlands and Islands (uhi.ac.uk)